Summary 2 prodigy Definitions depend is the process of estimation in unmapped situations A forecast is a prediction based on knowledge of past conduct Requirements for a forecast Validity variety Valuation of probability Good forecasting is based on skill, art, and luck Forecasting is both a science and an art Science forecasting equations statistics/regression analysis Art fresh at guessing (judgmental forecasting) honest at picking the identify type of forecasting equation We forecast phenomena and processes which we are unable to control 3 4 Forecasting Basic shouts The forecast succession Series Models Extrapolation of diachronic discriminating information into the future plot on graph and analysed for cardinal raw material comp 1nts of variation 5 Step 6 Monitor the forecast Step 5 formulate the forecast Step 4 Gather and fail information Step 3 discern a forecasting proficiency Step 2 devote a clock panorama Step 1 act upon purpose of forecast Trend - long movement in information Seasonality - short-term habitue variations in data Cycle uneven variations of more than one stratums duration unorthodox variations - caused by uncommon lot Random variations - caused by accident Simple heavy amount, median, mood Simple moving average, replicate moving average exponential function smoothing Linear regression multiplicative model 6 Examples Used where good historical data is available 1 Elements of any...If you want to baffle a ample essay, assign it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com
If you want to get a full essay, wisit our page: write my paper
